SD +7, Miami -7

[ElIguana]

I hate to go against Payton & the boys in the dome, but I feel Brees & the Bolts will keep it within 1 score. If Baltimore can play the colts fairly close with NO offense, Chargers have a good shot to cover, maybe win outright.

Miami is on fire, Cleveland is imploding. I expect some letdown from Miami's upset of the year on MNF, but Cleveland has shown NOTHING to make be believe they can compete with anyone at this point.

Ladies & Gentlemen, please talk me out of these 2 plays, as I am about to unload 10 units on each (that's a large play for a small-timer like me).

 

[BaseballGuy]

Miami is not worth -7

The chargers are a good team but they are going to get killed.

There ya go.

 

[ElIguana]

I appreciate the input, Baseball Guy. Any solid reasoning for your plays other than "they're going to get killed"? SD has the offense to score on Colts' suspect D, and the Bolts' D is not bad, think they can keep it close.

 

[Roxygurl]

im in san diego and most my hardcore bolt friends have a bad feeling about this game. 1st saint payton wants to crush the bolts because we destryoed the manning family on draft day. he knows whats been said about his snotty lil bro and our 11-3 record pisses him off even more. he saved the TD passing record last week just for the chargers.merry freakin christmas. but payton is about to meet a verrry agitated linebacker named donnie edwards who deserved to go to the probowl. hes got a friend next to him named steve foley who together will plant the perfect one on his ass more than once. his friend edge james has to get past a defensive front that few others have had success running against and jamal williams is another snubbed bolt who deserved pro bowl consideration. the most valuable asset they have could be defensive guru wade philips. manning is the key as always but this one makes bolt fans nervous. mostly its the bad blood between the manning family and AJ smith our GM. its a homecoming for drew brees too since we all know about his purdue days.~RG

 

[ElIguana]

Roxygurl, I guess this seems like a game where no one is giving SD a chance to keep it close (I haven't seen any posts to support it, anyway). But this is the type of game where the Bolts can sneak up and keep it close, maybe lose by a FG or win outright....I just don't see them getting blown out when they haven't been blown out by anyone all season long. I'm putting 10 units on SD unless someone presents a compelling reason not to. I hope enough people believe in an Indy rout to drive the line up over 7.

Any and all input is welcome--I like this game better than any other on the board this week, and no one has yet presented a strong argument against it.

 

[ppeter]

Best play would be a teaser of SD +14 and Miami pk.

 

[davemelon]

SD/Indy

I like your 2 plays, but would feel a little more comfortable with Miami and SD in a two game teaser. Here's a few numbers supporting these plays......

San Diego 10-1 ATS off an ATS win. The one loss was a six point loss to The Jets in week 2.

Indy's biggest win over a WINNING team this year was back in week 3 over GB by 14. The next largest margin of victory was last week when they beat Baltimore by 10. SD is every bit, and then some of those 2 teams.

Miami is 9-2 SU as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 the L3Y. Miami has scored 78 points their L3G, over Buff, NE, and Den. Cleveland has faced Buff, NE, and SD, and scored only 22 pts in those three games.

Cleveland is 0-6 SU & ATS on the road this year, with their closest loss by 7 points @ Dallas in week 2.

That looks good to me "El Iguana". I'll be playing this as a three team teaser with Jax at pk or -1 over Houston(My top play) as I had Mia and Jax already picked out, and you sold me on SD as that was one of two that I have been looking at to finish the teaser!

 

[davemelon]

ppeter, I guess we agree on this as well. See, things are coming together already for Dolphin fans!

 

[X-Files]

Ladies & Gentlemen, please talk me out of these 2 plays, as I am about to unload 10 units on each (that's a large play for a small-timer like me).

1} Indy has shown themselves to be the better team
over the past few years.

2} Indy beat Balt by only 20-10, but the final score
was not indicative of the margin of play in the game.

3} Indy crushed Houston in Indy while SD barely beat
them in Hou.

4} Indy has only won 1 of 11 games by less than 7
points, so they tend to either lose outright or crush
their opponents. {So, if you play SD, the ML may be
the value play.}

P.S. There may be +7.5's by gametime.

 

[SpaciousK]

Personally, I like the Chargers play, and considered it myself.

As far as the Phins go, well, I've has success on them recently, at Denver and vs. NE, but I would not even consider them as a touchdown favorite, off a short week and a ginormous victory on national TV. Cleveland is really, really bad though.

GL

 

[SALTHEITAL]

SD vs. COLTS...Personally;not touchin' it

Ladies & Gentlemen, please talk me out of these 2 plays, as I am about to unload 10 units on each (that's a large play for a small-timer like me).

Hi Iggy!

The only fact that I can point out to ya' on this play( "to talk ya' out of it ")is this...


Charger's have yet to beat a team over .500 on the road.

That aside,best of luck to ya'!


This SICILIAN has OVER 20 YEARS EXPERIENCE !!!

 

[ElIguana]

Thanks for the input, everyone. I have a good feeling about SD, hoping to get a 7.5 by gametime. Sometimes you just gotta go with your gut. As for the Miami play, it's more a play against a horrible Cleveland team on the road than anything. GLTA

 

[Salsantorre]

Ig, I was all set to play miami until I found two systems that favor cleveland. 1) play non- division team off home shut out loss by 17> this system is 16-3 , and it is also 13-1 if they are playing a team off of a su ats win. I must say it is difficult to pull the trigger on cleveland, but then again there is a line on the game for a reason.

 

[WCBias]

Another Charger fan here and do not like the Bolts in this spot for several reasons. First is that they are not a speed team so playing on turf, which they rarely do, is an advantage for Indy. Most of their receivers are possession guys and while LT is quick, I have seen him run down from behind on many breakaway runs this year. Second, their defensive strength is run defense, but their weakness is pass defense. Oh Oh. If San Diego does not get a pass rush going Payton will light them up big time. While the SD linebacking crew is solid, their corners are average at best, and safeties are below average. San Diego's front line has worn down during games and by the second half, a pass rush is non-existent.

Alternatively, San Diego's offense should be able to score on Indy. The other factor San Diego has going this year is the "luck mojo" as they seem to be getting at least one HUGE break in every game (Hall's ghost fumble vs. KC; Plummer's tipped interception in the endzone vs. Denver).

I look for San Diego to hang in there the first half then as their defensive line slows down in the 2nd half, Indy pulls away.

Indy 34 - SD 24

 

[johnskelington]

Hey EI.......

I really want to bet the Bolts myself just because they've been so good to me this year. I'll put a small play on them safe in the knowledge that if they fail to cover I'll still be up big on my SD plays on the year. I do like the Miami play. 2 teams going in oppisite directions. I'm not crazy about a whole lot of games this week. Small plays all around.
New England -1
Detroit -6
Steelers/Ravens over

I wish you luck today.

 

[SALTHEITAL]

Nicely done Iggy

Hi Iggy!

The only fact that I can point out to ya' on this play( "to talk ya' out of it ")is this...


Charger's have yet to beat a team over .500 on the road.

That aside,best of luck to ya'!


This SICILIAN has OVER 20 YEARS EXPERIENCE !!!

Bolt's away trend continues...

 

[bucbrowns31]

I Hate Peyton